Posts Tagged ‘Federal’

The Myth of Interest Rates

Saturday, March 6th, 2010

Update – Fed losing control of bond market?… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5V-yqBn-2w

Conventional wisdom which suggests that rising interest rates crush stock prices and that falling rates stimulate the market.

I first published a version of this chart on a message board in 2007, when the Fed cut rates after a market selloff. I’m not unique in charting this relationship, nor in using it to challenge conventional thinking, but I do think that I have something to contribute to the discussion.

At that time, in 2007, the market was struggling and the consensus was that cutting rates would ’save the day’.

This chart suggested otherwise and was subsequently proved correct. Rates were slashed but the market continued to fall – just as it had done from the peak in 2000.

I’m afraid it is now time to look at this chart from the other perspective. Stocks have made a major move up, rates have bottomed but rumblings are being made that they will rise over coming months.

Clearly, interest rates and stocks have, during the period in question generally enjoyed a surprising relationship. There was a period from 1995 to 1998 where rates were falling while the market rose but taking simple tops and bottoms in 2000, 2003, and again in 2007 it certainly looks as though stocks and rates have a correlation – and that stocks lead the relationship, not the other way around as is generally touted.

Why would this be – surely rising rates should kill the market, and easing of rates simulate. Isn’t that what we’ve just seen in the recent rally as liquidity from 0% interest rates gushed into the market?

How the Fed ’sets’ interest rates

http://mises.org/story/2728

Jim Cramer ranting to “cut rates and save the market”:

SPY vs TLT (Bond fund)..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SPY&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=tlt

The yield curve…
http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html

Duration : 0:9:49

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Fed Cut Boosts Market 1 – Newsnight 18.03.08

Saturday, March 6th, 2010

Following the past weeks volatile market developments Newsnight and other Channels report on todays boost following the Feds Cut of interest rates by a further 0.75% to levels slightly below current $ inflation rates. (Part 1 of 2)

Historical background on the lessons from the Great Depression of the 1920-30’s in a Report by Hugh Pym (BBC Economics Correspondent). Also highlighting the fine balance between avoiding recession andfeeding inflation, in interviews with Jon Danielsson (Londn School of Economics) & Linda Yueh (London Business School).

Followed by an interview by Jeremy Paxman with Prof. Barry Eichengreen (Author “The Gold Standard and the Great Depression”), on topics, among others, on the dangers ahead, potential solutions and current achievements. (Contd. in Part 2)

Duration : 0:10:55

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Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis Ashraf Laidi

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Ashraf Laidi’s “Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis –How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets”. Ashraf Laidi’s book is the first of its kind to explain in detail the meaning of risk appetite in currencies, commodities, equities, bonds and fixed income. In addition to its extensive historical overiew of the major historical developments in forex markets over the past 35 years, the book explores the interelationships among the various commodities, dissecting which currencies are driven by oil, gold, metals, and food/agriculture. www.ashraflaidi.com

Duration : 0:4:4

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Kroszner Says We May See Fed Rate Increase by Year’s End: Video

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner talks with Bloomberg’s Margaret Brennan about the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the discount rate by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent.
The change, effective today, marks the first increase in the rate charged to banks for direct loans since June 2006. The Fed repeated in a statement in Washington yesterday that its benchmark federal funds rate would stay low for an “extended period.” Kroszner speaks from Chicago. (Source: Bloomberg)

Duration : 0:4:36

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Barclays’s Pond Discusses Bernanke’s Prepared Testimony: Video

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — Michael Pond, an interest rate strategist at Barclays Capital, talks with Bloomberg’s Margaret Brennan about the impact of the Federal Reserve’s exit strategy on the fixed-income market.
In prepared testimony today Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed may raise the discount rate before long as part of the normalization of Fed lending, a move that won’t signal any change in monetary policy. The comments were released by the Fed even though the House Financial Services Committee hearing was postponed due to a winter storm in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

Duration : 0:1:57

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the decline of the american empire

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Max Keiser talks to Stacy Herbert about the end of the american empire, the federal reserve bank, unemployment rate, income tax, China opium wars, us dollar, uk pound, aaa rating triple a, inflation, Peter Schiff decoupling theory

recorded on May 23rd 2009

Duration : 0:10:45

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Two Fairy Tales Debunked Again: Oil and Interest Rates

Sunday, January 31st, 2010

http://www.donharrold.net

You are told one thing. The truth is another thing. Make your money with the “another thing”.

Duration : 0:3:28

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National Emergency Statement! LaRouche Speaks on Fed Rate

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

LaRouche: ‘The Fed Failed, Must Have Special Session–Establish Two-Tier Credit Rate, or Forget the United States’

Aug. 5, 2008 (LPAC)–Following the Federal Reserve’s non-action on interest rates today, Democratic statesman and economist Lyndon LaRouche responded urgently to that potentially suicidal failure for the United States.

“The Fed has failed to raise interest rates today–that is a clinically insane non-act,” LaRouche said. “A general bank interest rate of 4% must be instantly established–but with two tiers of rates–whatever you have to do to establish it! If you’re loyal to the United States, you’ll get the Fed to do it.”

The 4% general overnight rate, LaRouche has explained in a nationally circulated statement, is necessary “to keep funds inside the United States banking system,” keep them from fleeing and finishing off the dollar in an uncontrolled collapse. Bank of England interest rates are far higher, and so are the British-manipulated rates of the European Central Bank. The dollar is set up for a collapse unless the Fed is made to act now.

But a “second tier” of credit also has to be established, at a very low rate, selectively to target stimulating economic activity which increases employment and productivity. “We need a cheap line of credit from the Treasury, at 1-2% per annum, for growth–Franklin Roosevelt-style infrastructure and related investments–to stabilize and grow the United States’ physical economy. If you do that, you turn the physical economic collapse around–but you must have the general overnight Fed rate doubled, to 4%, immediately.

LaRouche called on his own supporters and other political forces to “run a major campaign on this. No more cheap bailout money! If you’re a patriot, you’ll join me to push the Fed into a special session to get this done now.”

He commented on the current staging in Washington of a Republican demand on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to call a special Congressional session. “They should have one,” LaRouche said. “It’s the right demand, though for the wrong purpose. This has been a `do-nothing Congress.’ They need to save the sinking economy–two-tier credit, Federal credits for infrastructure and productivity projects.

“Otherwise, whatever it takes, get the Fed to raise the overnight rate to 4%, now–or forget the survival of the United States,” LaRouche said.

Duration : 0:4:5

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LIBOR & THE FED FUNDS RATE

Monday, January 25th, 2010

Discusses comparisons between LIBOR and the fed funds rate and explains why US $ Overnight LIBOR can rise sharply above the fed funds rate. A product of Global Management Solutions, www.gmsinc.us, “Solutions for Improving Lives”.

Duration : 0:7:20

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