Now that the Canadian dollar is at parity with the US dollar, I’ve been hearing in the news that the Bank of Canada will be hiking interest rates. What is the reason behind this? How exactly does the dollar affect the interest rate? Thanks!
What the problem is, is the parity dollar, it makes exporting companies less competitive so the Canadian gov’t would really like a lower dollar.
But The Canadian gov’t also sees an overheated economy and is worried about inflation, and they will raise interest rates to stem inflation. Unfortuneatly this will attract more money to Canada and will raise the value of the dollar furthur
During the 1970’s interest rates on basically everything including savings and CD were well into double digits. What caused this? In order for interest rates to be that high again where would the market in general be headed? I understand how the economy and interest rates generally work but 10,12 percent seems crazy. How bad would inflation be?
If interest rates went up it will decrease the purchasing power of the people, which would in turn lead to reduction in inflation as too little money will be chasing too many products.
Update – Fed losing control of bond market?… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5V-yqBn-2w
Conventional wisdom which suggests that rising interest rates crush stock prices and that falling rates stimulate the market.
I first published a version of this chart on a message board in 2007, when the Fed cut rates after a market selloff. I’m not unique in charting this relationship, nor in using it to challenge conventional thinking, but I do think that I have something to contribute to the discussion.
At that time, in 2007, the market was struggling and the consensus was that cutting rates would ’save the day’.
This chart suggested otherwise and was subsequently proved correct. Rates were slashed but the market continued to fall – just as it had done from the peak in 2000.
I’m afraid it is now time to look at this chart from the other perspective. Stocks have made a major move up, rates have bottomed but rumblings are being made that they will rise over coming months.
Clearly, interest rates and stocks have, during the period in question generally enjoyed a surprising relationship. There was a period from 1995 to 1998 where rates were falling while the market rose but taking simple tops and bottoms in 2000, 2003, and again in 2007 it certainly looks as though stocks and rates have a correlation – and that stocks lead the relationship, not the other way around as is generally touted.
Why would this be – surely rising rates should kill the market, and easing of rates simulate. Isn’t that what we’ve just seen in the recent rally as liquidity from 0% interest rates gushed into the market?
How the Fed ’sets’ interest rates…
http://mises.org/story/2728
Jim Cramer ranting to “cut rates and save the market”:
I’m buying a house and I close on October 31. It’s a FHA loan and right now my rate is 6.375%. Should I lock in beforehand or should I wait for the bailout package to pass? What will happen to interest rates?
Rates aren’t based on the bailout, they’re usually based on the 10 year treasury bill, which is considered a safe investment since it’s guaranteed by the US government.
T-Bills have been popular lately due to their guaranteed return, so when their yields go up, rates go down.
Rates will probably increase since people will have more confidence in the market and start selling their T-Bills and buying stocks if the bailout goes through.
These are unprecidented times though and nobody can really predict what will happen with rates. I could be 100% incorrect. If you’re happy with 6.375% rate, I would definitely lock it in.
Is there a website to check interest rates? How can you check out the interest rates in Markets? How can you check out the interest rates in each countries?
Commercial bank lending rates are unlikely to drop significantly any time soon. Results released by key players towards the end of last week indicate that interest on lending activities remains the main source of income for banks as they seek to maintain profit growth levels and build on shareholder value. The central bank has repeatedly blamed unidentifed weaknesses in the system for the failure by banks to reduce their rates in line with the regulators prodding using both monetary policy tools at its disposal and moral suasion.
This seems to be the current situation; usually interest rates go up with inflation (which would make bond prices go down), but now we have substantial inflation, and interest rates are heading south. Help! Are bonds safe?
Bonds are "safe" in that they are owed to you legally. You aren’t buying stock that might not be worth anything, you are actually giving a loan that must be paid back. As long as the company or government survives, you’ll get your "loan" back with a bond.
As far as bonds value to you as for the yield – they tend to make money when the stock market drops. So you should have a portion of your portfolio in bonds to offset bad stock years.